Why one should wait for a tropical cyclone to form.

8/27/21

I have been seeing this image on many Meteorology pages today and I wholeheartedly agree 100% with the message that the US National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio Texas had given today.

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A Tropical Cyclones Information such as the model forecast, path, and intensity, should never be given before an actual circulation is formed due to extreme low accuracy. As you can see from my pictures below taken from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ on 8/25/21 and today (8/27/21) there are two different paths shown for Tropical Storm Ida with today being more narrow. Right now the reason for the slight shift NE is the location of the center of the storm being located further SW than anticipated.

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Ida is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane within the next 48hours, reaching the gulf coast with hurricane-force winds along the Lousiana coast. Heavy rainfall will be expected into Monday across Louisana to the coastal Mississippi valley which could result in a flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. Please remember if you see waters above average to turn around, don't drown.

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The best place to access information 24/7 is https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ and the experts at NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center