Warm/dry conditions are predicted this winter in Texas

La Niña 2021-22

Scientists are starting to see numbers decrease in the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) which concludes changes in tropical rainfall and wind patterns echoing around the globe. For the U.S, the most significant impact will be the shift in the mid-latitude jet streams. These swift, high-level winds separate warm/cool air masses and steer storms from the Pacific across the U.S. The Map below shows what a typical La Niña and El Niño winter looks like here in the US.

This year we saw more Hurricanes in the Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico due to weaker vertical shear/trade winds and less atmospheric stability, while the Eastern Pacific basins were suppressed due to stronger vertical wind shear, and cool/dry conditions.

These warm and cool phases (El Niño or La Niña) occurring in the tropical pacific shift back and forth irregularly every 3-7 years triggering predictable disruptions of temperature, precipitation, and distributing large-scale air movements in the tropics triggering global effects.

La Nina and El Nino winters
Climate Prediction Center ONI

This La Niña is expected to occur from December 2021 to February 2022 with an 87% chance. NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center will be announcing the U.S Temperature and Prediction outlook for the winter on October 21, 2021, so be sure to check back to see what your area will look like for the up and coming holiday season.

Warm and cool phases in the tropical pacific